Part V: Inside the BRICS Agenda: What’s Real, What’s Theater, and What Must Be Blocked at All Costs
The BRICS agenda is a mixed bag of ambition, misdirection, and trial ballooning. But the signal is clear: they’re not just talking cooperation — they’re constructing alternatives.
What’s Real:
De-dollarization mechanics. Currency swap lines, direct settlements in yuan, and a pivot toward gold-backed trade mechanisms aren’t just symbolic. They’re already underway.
Energy integration. Russia, China, and Iran are quietly merging energy logistics, while BRICS+ proposals aim to set prices outside Brent and WTI benchmarks.
Infrastructure finance. The New Development Bank is accelerating projects in the Global South without Western strings, even if the quality varies.
What’s Theater:
Single BRICS currency. It gets press, but internal contradictions — inflation, FX risk, politics — make it a fantasy for now.
Unified military bloc. BRICS is economically motivated; geopolitics is a headache. India and China don’t trust each other.
Democratic branding. The idea that BRICS represents “people-led” development is PR. Several members are outright authoritarian.
What Must Be Blocked:
Expansion into the Gulf and ASEAN. If Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Indonesia fully align, the West loses key levers in energy and maritime trade.
Alt-finance for rogue regimes. BRICS-style credit shields for sanctioned states (Iran, Venezuela, etc.) undermine Western deterrence.
Digital currency dominance. A BRICS-led digital settlement system — even without a single currency — threatens SWIFT’s role and could accelerate dollar flight.
Final Thought
The BRICS agenda isn’t unified, but it’s ambitious — and it's no longer a sideshow. If the West doesn’t shape the perimeter, it will be shaped by it.