The Bridge to Beijing: How the West Drove Russia into China's Arms
The longer the Ukraine war drags on, the more it strengthens the Sino-Russian axis the West fears most
Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, recently told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that "China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, otherwise the US will divert its full focus to Beijing."
That one sentence may go down as the most honest statement to come out of a diplomatic dinner since the Cold War ended.
And it exposes a problem far deeper than China-Russia coziness: the West, by extending and moralizing the Ukraine war, is not isolating Russia. It’s entrenching a new geopolitical reality where China gains strategic depth, and Europe becomes an afterthought.
China Didn’t Start the War — But It’s Profiting From It
Wang’s remark wasn’t a gaffe. It was a power move. China sees the Ukraine war not as a moral catastrophe, but as strategic cover. As long as Washington is bogged down in Eastern Europe, Beijing has:
Fewer American naval assets in the Pacific
Time to deepen its foothold in Africa, South America, and the South China Sea
A discounted Russian gas supply
A growing BRICS bloc built on anti-dollar settlements
Meanwhile, Russia’s post-2014 pivot away from Europe is nearly complete. Its pipelines, trade routes, and banking systems are now wired to Beijing. The longer the war drags on, the more that infrastructure hardens.
Europe’s Values-Based Diplomacy Is Getting It Nowhere
Kallas may have received a four-hour lecture from Wang Yi, but the subtext was brutal: "You don’t set the terms anymore."
The EU talks about human rights and sanctions. China counters with rare earth leverage, market access threats, and bilateral deals bypassing Brussels altogether.
Beijing doesn’t need Europe’s approval — it needs its distraction. The more energy the EU spends sanctioning Chinese banks and squeezing Russia, the more strategic oxygen Beijing gets.
Russia’s Pivot to China Was a Western Own Goal
Let’s not rewrite history. Before 2014, Russia was plugged into the European economy:
Nord Stream pipelines bound it to German industry
Western oil companies had stakes in Russian fields
Russian capital flowed through London and Cyprus
Then came regime change in Ukraine, Crimea, sanctions, NATO expansion. You don’t have to love Putin to see the obvious: the West made Russia choose sides.
And now, Russia sells oil to China in yuan. It builds payment systems outside SWIFT. It courts the Global South with BRICS outreach.
Western strategy turned a potential spoiler into Beijing’s most valuable ally.
The U.S. Bleeds Russia — While Europe Bleeds Itself
Washington arms Ukraine, sells LNG to Europe at a premium, and re-onshores manufacturing under "friend-shoring" and IRA subsidies. Meanwhile, Europe:
Loses cheap Russian energy
Funds a war with no off-ramp
Watches its supply chains falter and inflation climb
China sees this and smiles. It doesn’t need to win a propaganda war — it just needs the West to keep playing theirs.
Final Thought: The Real Pivot Happened in Brussels
If the West had worked to freeze the conflict early, enforce the Minsk Accords, or rebuild post-2014 dialogue with Moscow, it might have maintained a strategic buffer.
Instead, it drove Russia east. And now, Beijing has a nuclear-armed, resource-rich, anti-Western partner eager to sell at a discount and help undermine the dollar.
Wang Yi didn’t just give Kallas a lecture. He gave Europe a eulogy.
In trying to isolate Russia, the West built a bridge to Beijing — and handed over the toll rights.
Coming soon: What the West Can Still Do to Disrupt the Axis Before It’s Set in Stone.