Why Patrick Boyle Is Wrong About Russia's Economy

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May 15, 2025

By Bryan D. Moir, Author of Junk Economics

“A country can survive war. It cannot survive economic illusion.” — Milton Friedman

Why Boyle? Why Now?

I singled out Patrick Boyle for this analysis because his video is not just wrong—it’s dangerously misleading. It is the epitome of what I call Junk Economics: a blend of oversimplified charts, smug delivery, and ideological bias masquerading as analysis. In an age where misinformation spreads faster than monetary policy adjustments, this kind of pseudo-economic drivel gives real economists a bad name. It confuses the public, distorts discourse, and undermines serious debate.

Boyle’s brand of performative punditry has just enough jargon to sound credible, but none of the discipline, data integrity, or theoretical grounding that real economic analysis demands. This isn’t just about Russia—it’s about calling out bad economics when it struts around pretending to be truth.

This piece sets the record straight.

For those wanting to see Boyle’s performative punditry you can view his video here. Why is Russia's Economy Growing?

Executive Summary

Patrick Boyle’s video, “Why is Russia’s Economy Growing?”, distorts post-2022 Russian economic dynamics through a blend of selective data, economic half-truths, and smug misdirection. This rebuttal draws on the Bank of Russia’s latest data and macroeconomic theory from Friedman, Keynes, and Galbraith to dismantle his arguments piece by piece.

I. Misunderstanding Wartime GDP

Boyle claims wartime GDP is fake because tanks get destroyed. That’s not economics—it’s stand-up comedy.

Keynes explained in How to Pay for the War that government-directed spending—even on non-consumption goods—stimulates aggregate demand. Galbraith implemented this during WWII. It’s not fake GDP. It’s real employment and output.

II. Inflation: Context and Control

Boyle dramatizes a 10.3% inflation rate and tells tales of butter under lock and key.

Reality check:

The Bank of Russia reports core inflation is easing.
Interest rates are at 21%—deliberately hawkish.
The ruble is stable thanks to capital controls.

Friedman’s dictum on inflation as a monetary phenomenon holds. And Russia’s monetary base isn’t spiraling. It’s being sterilized with textbook precision.

III. Helicopter Money? Not Even Close

Boyle calls Russia’s wartime fiscal measures “helicopter money.”

False. Helicopter money is unbacked monetary injection. Russia’s credit expansions are controlled, financed internally, and countered by interest rate tightening. This is classic Keynesian war finance—not Weimar.

IV. Labor Market: Not a Mirage

Boyle says 2% unemployment is a mirage due to conscription.

What he ignores:

Wages are rising in key sectors.
Labor is reallocating within strategic industries.
Factory utilization is at post-Soviet highs.

V. Corporate Debt Hysteria

He warns of a 71% surge in corporate debt, calling it hidden money printing.

Galbraith would roll his eyes. During WWII, the U.S. banking system was mobilized in exactly this way. Preferential credit isn’t corruption—it’s coordination. BoR stress tests show healthy capital buffers.

VI. Trade Reorientation Is Strategy, Not Crisis

Boyle treats Russia’s pivot away from the West as economic exile.

Wrong again:

Energy exports to India and China are at record levels.
Non-oil exports are booming.
The current account is back in surplus.

Russia isn’t isolated—it’s de-Westernizing.

VII. Dutch Disease? Try Reverse Dutch Disease.

Boyle drags out “Dutch Disease” like it’s 2005.

In reality:

Energy profits are being reinvested in manufacturing.
Domestic production of critical tech and agriculture is growing.
Capacity utilization exceeds 80% in key sectors.

VIII. FDI Collapse? Or Strategic Decoupling?

Yes, Western capital fled. But so did the dependency.

Russia’s partnerships are now with BRICS, MENA, ASEAN. Its tech base is Eurasian. It’s not 1992 anymore—and Boyle’s failure to grasp this says more about him than it does about Russia.

IX. Conclusion: Adaptation, Not Collapse

Patrick Boyle wants a Russian collapse narrative. The facts don’t fit.

GDP is growing and structurally rebalancing.
Inflation is under control.
Monetary and fiscal policies are coordinated.
Trade is diversified, not broken.

Boyle traffics in illusions. Russia, for now, is surviving the war—economically, structurally, and strategically.

Junk Economics